BALM: slight upturn in freight transport until 2026

BALM: slight upturn in freight transport until 2026

BALM: slight upturn in freight transport until 2026

More freight transport in the future? Credits: Hermann Schmidtendorf
The German Federal Office for Mobility and Logistics (BALM) has published its moving medium-term forecast for the development of freight transport from 2024 to 2026. The basis is assumptions about geopolitical and economic developments. The authors are employees of Intraplan Consult, the client is the German Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV).

In 2024, the authors of the study recorded a contraction in the construction industry and coal mining. This had a negative impact on transport by rail and inland waterway transport. Higher production of crude steel and in the chemical industry had a positive effect. According to the study, this resulted in an overall modal freight transport performance of plus 0.4 percent for 2024 with a volume of minus 0.7 percent.

In the current year 2025, according to the BALM forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign trade in Germany would “find their way back to the growth path”. A slight increase of 0.4 percent (transport volume) and 1.2 percent (transport performance) is to be expected.

In 2026, GDP, foreign trade and industrial production could increase slightly again. The BALM therefore forecasts an increase of 1.6 percent in transport volume and 1.9 percent in transport performance. Due to the energy transition, sales of hard coal would continue to fall and crude steel production would continue to stagnate. Overall, the BALM study predicts that transport performance in 2026 will almost reach the level before the Corona crisis. The transport volume, however, will continue to fall well short of this level. hfs/et

Other posts you may be interested in